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Galatasaray vs Samsunspor: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · Süper Lig · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Galatasaray · Samsunspor
Before kick-off
Süper Lig, 21 November 2026: Galatasaray are at home to Samsunspor. Galatasaray sit 1st in the 18-team table while Samsunspor are 17th, so 16 places separate the two sides. Samsunspor are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than Galatasaray right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Samsunspor recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for Galatasaray against 3 for Samsunspor.
Galatasaray are hard to beat on their own ground — 33 wins and 8 draws in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of Samsunspor: 15 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats in 40 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average.
Head to head, Galatasaray have the upper hand: 15 wins in 20 meetings with Samsunspor in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Samsunspor 4:1 Galatasaray. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Galatasaray: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 6 wins in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Samsunspor: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Galatasaray — 1, Samsunspor — 17 (of 18).
Home and away record
Galatasaray at home and Samsunspor away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 33-8-0 | 15-10-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Galatasaray won 15, 1 draws, Samsunspor won 4. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 02.05.2026: Samsunspor 4:1 Galatasaray
- 05.12.2025: Galatasaray 3:2 Samsunspor
- 11.04.2025: Samsunspor 0:2 Galatasaray
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours Galatasaray: 15 wins in 20 meetings with Samsunspor.
- Our model expects more corners from Galatasaray: 7.2 against 2.5 for Samsunspor.
- Galatasaray is the more likely winner in our model: 81%, draw 12%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 73% of Galatasaray’s home matches and 55% of Samsunspor’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Galatasaray 7.2, Samsunspor 2.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 62%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Galatasaray 1.8, Samsunspor 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Galatasaray win 81%, draw 12%, Samsunspor win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 80% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 45% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.