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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC: prediction and statistics
South Korea · K League 1 · 22 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Gimcheon Sangmu FC · Jeju United FC
Before kick-off
K League 1, 22 November 2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC are at home to Jeju United FC. Gimcheon Sangmu FC go into the match 10th of 12 in the table, Jeju United FC are 7th. Gimcheon Sangmu FC are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Gimcheon Sangmu FC: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Jeju United FC recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. In points that is almost level: 5 against 4.
At home (2024–2026) Gimcheon Sangmu FC have 23 wins, 17 draws and 16 defeats in 56 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Jeju United FC: 16 wins, 12 draws and 29 defeats in 57 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 24 meetings — wins: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 10, Jeju United FC 6; draws: 8. The most recent meeting, on 22 August 2026, finished Jeju United FC 0:0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 11 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Jeju United FC: last five matches — W-L-L-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Gimcheon Sangmu FC — 10, Jeju United FC — 7 (of 12).
Home and away record
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home and Jeju United FC away, 2024–2026.
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Jeju United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 56 | 57 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 23-17-16 | 16-12-29 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 10, 8 draws, Jeju United FC won 6. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 22.08.2026: Jeju United FC 0:0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 05.07.2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1:1 Jeju United FC
- 18.04.2026: Jeju United FC 1:1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 41% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s home matches and 47% of Jeju United FC’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Gimcheon Sangmu FC: 5.6 against 3.1 for Jeju United FC.
- No clear favourite in our model: 38% – 27% – 34%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5.6, Jeju United FC 3.1. In a typical match of this competition — 8.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 36%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.8, Jeju United FC 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 28%).
Result
Our model: Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 38%, draw 27%, Jeju United FC win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Jeju United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 35% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 32% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.