Xpect
Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995: prediction and statistics
South Korea · K League 1 · 22 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Gwangju FC · Bucheon FC 1995
Before kick-off
Gwangju FC host Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1 on 22 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Gwangju FC are 12th, Bucheon FC 1995 11th in a table of 12. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Gwangju FC have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Bucheon FC 1995 no victory — 5 defeats. Counted in points, Gwangju FC took 5 from that stretch and Bucheon FC 1995 only 0.
The home record of Gwangju FC (2024–2026) is balanced: 19 wins, 13 draws and 25 defeats in 57 matches, 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home Bucheon FC 1995 have 5 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats in 17 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 19 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Gwangju FC 10, Bucheon FC 1995 6, draws 3. Last time out (24 October 2026) it ended Bucheon FC 1995 0:3 Gwangju FC. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Gwangju FC: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Bucheon FC 1995: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 11 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · away
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Gwangju FC — 12, Bucheon FC 1995 — 11 (of 12).
Home and away record
Gwangju FC at home and Bucheon FC 1995 away, 2024–2026.
| Gwangju FC | Bucheon FC 1995 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-13-25 | 5-4-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Gwangju FC won 10, 3 draws, Bucheon FC 1995 won 6. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 24.10.2026: Bucheon FC 1995 0:3 Gwangju FC
- 08.08.2026: Bucheon FC 1995 0:0 Gwangju FC
- 11.04.2026: Gwangju FC 0:1 Bucheon FC 1995
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 44% of Gwangju FC home games and 47% of Bucheon FC 1995 away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Gwangju FC 43%, draw 26%, Bucheon FC 1995 32%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.2 corners in the match: Gwangju FC 4.0, Bucheon FC 1995 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 8.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 30% (typical match — 36%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Gwangju FC 1.8, Bucheon FC 1995 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 28%).
Result
Our model: Gwangju FC win 43%, draw 26%, Bucheon FC 1995 win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gwangju FC | Bucheon FC 1995 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 22% | 27% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 41% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.