Xpect
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Independiente del Valle 5.7, Aucas 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Independiente del Valle 1.9, Aucas 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 49%.
Result
Market line without margin: Independiente del Valle win 67%, draw 22%, Aucas win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Independiente del Valle: last five matches — W-W-D-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Aucas: last five matches — D-W-L-D-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Independiente del Valle — 1, Aucas — 4 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Independiente del Valle at home and Aucas away, 2024–2026.
| Independiente del Valle | Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 50 |
| Win rate | 65% | 34% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 46% |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Independiente del Valle won 13, 5 draws, Aucas won 5. Per match: 2.8 goals, 9.6 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 16.07.2026: Aucas 0:3 Independiente del Valle
- 14.03.2026: Independiente del Valle 2:2 Aucas
- 19.07.2025: Independiente del Valle 2:1 Aucas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Market line without margin: Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 22%, Aucas 12%.