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Libertad vs Leones del Norte: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Libertad 5.0, Leones del Norte 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Libertad 2.2, Leones del Norte 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Result
Market line without margin: Libertad win 38%, draw 30%, Leones del Norte win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Libertad: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
Leones del Norte: last five matches — L-W-L-D-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Libertad — 7, Leones del Norte — 8 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Libertad at home and Leones del Norte away, 2024–2026.
| Libertad | Leones del Norte | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 16 |
| Win rate | 48% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 38% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Libertad won 0, 1 draws, Leones del Norte won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.0 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 04.07.2026: Libertad 1:3 Leones del Norte
- 28.02.2026: Leones del Norte 1:1 Libertad
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.
Who is more likely to win Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Market line without margin: Libertad 38%, draw 30%, Leones del Norte 32%.