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Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Inter Miami · Columbus Crew
Before kick-off
Inter Miami host Columbus Crew in MLS on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Inter Miami are 3rd of 30, Columbus Crew 13th — a gap of 10 places. Inter Miami are in the top three.
Inter Miami are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. Few sides are in better shape than Columbus Crew right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: Inter Miami have 33 wins, 16 draws and 8 defeats in 57 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Away from home Columbus Crew have 19 wins, 16 draws and 19 defeats in 54 matches, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 4.2 per game in home matches of Inter Miami and 3.3 in away matches of Columbus Crew.
The 13 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Inter Miami 7, Columbus Crew 4, draws 2. Last time out (27 September 2026) it ended Columbus Crew 2:1 Inter Miami. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Inter Miami: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Columbus Crew: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Inter Miami — 3, Columbus Crew — 13 (of 30).
Home and away record
Inter Miami at home and Columbus Crew away, 2024–2026.
| Inter Miami | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 54 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 33-16-8 | 19-16-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Inter Miami won 7, 2 draws, Columbus Crew won 4. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 27.09.2026: Columbus Crew 2:1 Inter Miami
- 01.08.2026: Inter Miami 2:2 Columbus Crew
- 31.05.2025: Inter Miami 5:1 Columbus Crew
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 81% of Inter Miami home games and 63% of Columbus Crew away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Inter Miami 43%, draw 22%, Columbus Crew 36%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Inter Miami 4.7, Columbus Crew 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Inter Miami 2.2, Columbus Crew 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Inter Miami win 43%, draw 22%, Columbus Crew win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 70%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Inter Miami | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 79% | 72% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 28% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.