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Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Internacional de Bogota · Fortaleza FC
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Internacional de Bogota 4.7, Fortaleza FC 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Internacional de Bogota 2.6, Fortaleza FC 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 75%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Internacional de Bogota win 49%, draw 25%, Fortaleza FC win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Internacional de Bogota: last five matches — D-D-W-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Fortaleza FC: last five matches — D-D-D-D-D.
- 19 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Internacional de Bogota — 13, Fortaleza FC — 16 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Internacional de Bogota at home and Fortaleza FC away, 2024–2026.
| Internacional de Bogota | Fortaleza FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 59 | 57 |
| Win rate | 34% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 35% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 60% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Internacional de Bogota won 1, 5 draws, Fortaleza FC won 6. Per match: 1.9 goals, 8.8 corners, 5.8 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: Fortaleza FC 1:1 Internacional de Bogota
- 29.10.2025: Internacional de Bogota 0:1 Fortaleza FC
- 08.09.2025: Fortaleza FC 1:0 Internacional de Bogota
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 57%.
Who is more likely to win Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC?
Our model: Internacional de Bogota 49%, draw 25%, Fortaleza FC 26%.