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Kayserispor vs Sarıyer: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kayserispor · Sarıyer
Before kick-off
Kayserispor host Sarıyer in 1. Lig on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Kayserispor are 2nd of 20, Sarıyer 14th — a gap of 12 places. Kayserispor are in the top three.
Kayserispor have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Sarıyer: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Kayserispor took 10 from that stretch and Sarıyer only 5.
Home advantage matters here: Kayserispor have 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Away from home Sarıyer have 6 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 25 matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. Last time out (1 December 2015) it ended Sarıyer 2:7 Kayserispor.
Form
Kayserispor: last five matches — L-W-W-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Sarıyer: last five matches — W-L-D-D-L.
- 9 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Kayserispor — 2, Sarıyer — 14 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kayserispor at home and Sarıyer away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Kayserispor | Sarıyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 25 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-1-1 | 6-7-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Kayserispor won 1, 0 draws, Sarıyer won 0. Per match: 9.0 goals.
- 01.12.2015: Sarıyer 2:7 Kayserispor
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Kayserispor the favourite at 67%; a draw is 21%.
- Kayserispor should win the corner count: 5.3 expected against 3.3 for Sarıyer.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 83% of Kayserispor home games and 52% of Sarıyer away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.6 corners in the match: Kayserispor 5.3, Sarıyer 3.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 36% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 51%, typical match 45%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Kayserispor 2.3, Sarıyer 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Kayserispor win 67%, draw 21%, Sarıyer win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 40%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kayserispor | Sarıyer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 32% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 44% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.