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Mardin 1969 vs Bandırmaspor: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mardin 1969 · Bandırmaspor
Before kick-off
Mardin 1969 host Bandırmaspor in 1. Lig on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Mardin 1969 are 4th of 20, Bandırmaspor 15th — a gap of 11 places.
Mardin 1969 have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Bandırmaspor: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Mardin 1969 took 10 from that stretch and Bandırmaspor only 5.
Home advantage matters here: Mardin 1969 have 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.6 per game. Away from home Bandırmaspor have 12 wins, 20 draws and 14 defeats in 46 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Mardin 1969: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Bandırmaspor: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Mardin 1969 — 4, Bandırmaspor — 15 (of 20).
Home and away record
Mardin 1969 at home and Bandırmaspor away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mardin 1969 | Bandırmaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-2-1 | 12-20-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Mardin 1969 should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 3.2 for Bandırmaspor.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 14% of Mardin 1969 home games and 41% of Bandırmaspor away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Mardin 1969 41%, draw 29%, Bandırmaspor 29%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Mardin 1969 6.0, Bandırmaspor 3.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Mardin 1969 2.1, Bandırmaspor 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Mardin 1969 win 41%, draw 29%, Bandırmaspor win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mardin 1969 | Bandırmaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 57% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 7.7 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 48% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.