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Lille vs Galatasaray: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Lille · Galatasaray
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Lille’s home matches and 75% of Galatasaray’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Galatasaray: 5.4 against 3.8 for Lille.
- Lille is the more likely winner in our model: 52%, draw 24%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Lille 3.8, Galatasaray 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Lille 2.4, Galatasaray 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 55%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: Lille win 52%, draw 24%, Galatasaray win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 54%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Lille
All 14: 5W · 0D · 9L · goals 16:19
Home 7: 3W · 0D · 4L · goals 12:10
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Arsenal (a) 0:3
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Real Betis (h) 2:3
- 19.03.26 · UEL · Aston Villa (a) 0:2
- 12.03.26 · UEL · Aston Villa (h) 0:1
- 26.02.26 · UEL · FK Crvena Zvezda (a) 2:0
League · Ligue 1 2026/27: 2 of 18 · 4W · 1D · 1L · goals 9:4. France — 5 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 69.2).
Galatasaray
All 14: 5W · 1D · 8L · goals 19:27
Away 7: 1W · 0D · 6L · goals 7:18
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Barcelona (h) 1:4
- 09.09.26 · UCL · Sporting CP (a) 1:3
- 18.03.26 · UCL · Liverpool (a) 0:4
- 10.03.26 · UCL · Liverpool (h) 1:0
- 25.02.26 · UCL · Juventus (a) 2:3
League · Süper Lig 2026/27: 1 of 18 · 5W · 1D · 1L · goals 16:11. Türkiye — 9 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 50.3).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Lille — 32 of 36 · 0 pts · 2 played; Galatasaray — 34 of 36 · 0 pts · 2 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Lille: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Galatasaray: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Lille at home and Galatasaray away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lille | Galatasaray | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| Win rate | 63% | 13% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 38% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Lille vs Galatasaray?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Lille vs Galatasaray?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Lille vs Galatasaray?
Our model: Lille 52%, draw 24%, Galatasaray 24%.