Xpect
Louletano vs Rio Ave: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Louletano · Rio Ave
Result
Our model: Louletano win 20%, draw 24%, Rio Ave win 56%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Louletano: last five matches — D-W-L-W-L.
Rio Ave: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Louletano at home and Rio Ave away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Louletano | Rio Ave | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Win rate | 100% | 60% |
| Goals scored per match | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.0 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 80% |
| Total corners per match | — | 14.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 50% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Louletano vs Rio Ave?
Our model: Louletano 20%, draw 24%, Rio Ave 56%.