Xpect
Macara vs Independiente del Valle: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Macara 5.1, Independiente del Valle 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Macara 2.2, Independiente del Valle 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Macara win 35%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Macara: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Independiente del Valle: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Macara — 2, Independiente del Valle — 1 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Macara at home and Independiente del Valle away, 2024–2026.
| Macara | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 51 |
| Win rate | 40% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 48% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Macara won 3, 4 draws, Independiente del Valle won 15. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.5 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 05.09.2026: Independiente del Valle 3:1 Macara
- 16.05.2026: Macara 0:3 Independiente del Valle
- 12.07.2025: Macara 1:2 Independiente del Valle
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model: Macara 35%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle 39%.