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Málaga vs Real Sociedad: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Málaga 5.4, Real Sociedad 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Málaga 2.2, Real Sociedad 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 73%.
Result
Our model: Málaga win 55%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 64%.
Form
Málaga: last five matches — D-D-D-L-D.
- 10 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Real Sociedad: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Málaga — 19, Real Sociedad — 8 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Málaga at home and Real Sociedad away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Málaga | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 42 |
| Win rate | 0% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 100% | 43% |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: Málaga won 9, 9 draws, Real Sociedad won 13. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.2 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 07.01.2024: Málaga 0:1 Real Sociedad
- 22.04.2018: Málaga 2:0 Real Sociedad
- 10.12.2017: Real Sociedad 0:2 Málaga
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 53%.
Who is more likely to win Málaga vs Real Sociedad?
Our model: Málaga 55%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad 24%.