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Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin: prediction and statistics
Czechia · Chance Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mlada Boleslav · Zlin
Before kick-off
Chance Liga, 21 November 2026: Mlada Boleslav are at home to Zlin. Mlada Boleslav sit 3rd in the 16-team table while Zlin are 16th, so 13 places separate the two sides. Mlada Boleslav are part of the leading group. Zlin are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than Mlada Boleslav right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Zlin have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for Mlada Boleslav against 5 for Zlin.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Mlada Boleslav have 16 wins, 12 draws and 14 defeats in 42 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Zlin — 4 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats in 23 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 18 meetings — wins: Mlada Boleslav 9, Zlin 5; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, finished Mlada Boleslav 1:1 Zlin. On average these meetings produce 3.7 goals.
Form
Mlada Boleslav: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 12 wins in a row · at home
- 12 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Zlin: last five matches — L-W-D-L-D.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Mlada Boleslav — 3, Zlin — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Mlada Boleslav at home and Zlin away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mlada Boleslav | Zlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-12-14 | 4-6-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Mlada Boleslav won 9, 4 draws, Zlin won 5. Per match: 3.7 goals.
- 09.05.2026: Mlada Boleslav 1:1 Zlin
- 06.12.2025: Mlada Boleslav 3:1 Zlin
- 09.08.2025: Zlin 3:2 Mlada Boleslav
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Mlada Boleslav is the more likely winner in our model: 71%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 57% of Mlada Boleslav’s home matches and 52% of Zlin’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Mlada Boleslav: 6.2 against 3.9 for Zlin.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Mlada Boleslav 6.2, Zlin 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Mlada Boleslav 1.5, Zlin 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 60%.
Result
Our model: Mlada Boleslav win 71%, draw 18%, Zlin win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mlada Boleslav | Zlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 24% | 35% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.