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NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: NEC Nijmegen · PSV Eindhoven
Before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen host PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: PSV Eindhoven are 1st of 18, NEC Nijmegen 11th — a gap of 10 places.
NEC Nijmegen are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 1 win and 4 draws. An uneven run for PSV Eindhoven: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 7 and 6.
The home record of NEC Nijmegen (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 15 wins, 15 draws and 10 defeats in 40 matches, 2.1 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. On the road PSV Eindhoven are a dangerous side — 30 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats in 40 away matches, 2.8 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.7 per game in home matches of NEC Nijmegen and 4.1 in away matches of PSV Eindhoven.
History favours PSV Eindhoven — 30 wins from 41 meetings with NEC Nijmegen. Last time out (14 March 2026) it ended PSV Eindhoven 2:3 NEC Nijmegen. On average these meetings produce 3.6 goals.
Form
NEC Nijmegen: last five matches — D-D-D-D-W.
- 11 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches — L-L-L-W-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: NEC Nijmegen — 11, PSV Eindhoven — 1 (of 18).
Home and away record
NEC Nijmegen at home and PSV Eindhoven away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-15-10 | 30-2-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Head to head
41 meetings in our database: NEC Nijmegen won 5, 6 draws, PSV Eindhoven won 30. Per match: 3.6 goals.
- 14.03.2026: PSV Eindhoven 2:3 NEC Nijmegen
- 03.03.2026: NEC Nijmegen 3:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 13.09.2025: NEC Nijmegen 3:5 PSV Eindhoven
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 62%; a draw is 18%.
- PSV Eindhoven has won 30 of the last 41 meetings with NEC Nijmegen.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 80% of NEC Nijmegen home games and 85% of PSV Eindhoven away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: NEC Nijmegen 5.4, PSV Eindhoven 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: NEC Nijmegen 1.7, PSV Eindhoven 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 70%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: NEC Nijmegen win 20%, draw 18%, PSV Eindhoven win 62%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 68%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| NEC Nijmegen | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 85% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 78% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 25% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.