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Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Feyenoord Rotterdam · Excelsior
Before kick-off
Feyenoord Rotterdam host Excelsior in Eredivisie on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Feyenoord Rotterdam are 2nd of 18, Excelsior 15th — a gap of 13 places. Feyenoord Rotterdam are in the top three.
Feyenoord Rotterdam have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Excelsior: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Feyenoord Rotterdam took 10 from that stretch and Excelsior only 5.
Home advantage matters here: Feyenoord Rotterdam have 24 wins, 9 draws and 6 defeats in 39 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Away from home Excelsior have 7 wins, 7 draws and 9 defeats in 23 matches, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.9 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.5 per game in home matches of Feyenoord Rotterdam and 3.4 in away matches of Excelsior.
History favours Feyenoord Rotterdam — 22 wins from 25 meetings with Excelsior. Last time out (15 March 2026) it ended Feyenoord Rotterdam 2:1 Excelsior. On average these meetings produce 3.6 goals.
Form
Feyenoord Rotterdam: last five matches — W-W-W-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Excelsior: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 16 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Feyenoord Rotterdam — 2, Excelsior — 15 (of 18).
Home and away record
Feyenoord Rotterdam at home and Excelsior away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-9-6 | 7-7-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Feyenoord Rotterdam won 22, 0 draws, Excelsior won 3. Per match: 3.6 goals.
- 15.03.2026: Feyenoord Rotterdam 2:1 Excelsior
- 16.08.2025: Excelsior 1:2 Feyenoord Rotterdam
- 19.05.2024: Feyenoord Rotterdam 4:0 Excelsior
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Feyenoord Rotterdam should win the corner count: 7.3 expected against 2.5 for Excelsior.
- Feyenoord Rotterdam has won 22 of the last 25 meetings with Excelsior.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 62% of Feyenoord Rotterdam home games and 74% of Excelsior away games.
- Our model makes Feyenoord Rotterdam the favourite at 80%; a draw is 12%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Feyenoord Rotterdam 7.3, Excelsior 2.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Feyenoord Rotterdam 1.4, Excelsior 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 20% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 63%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: Feyenoord Rotterdam win 80%, draw 12%, Excelsior win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 62% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 74% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 9% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.