Xpect
Telstar vs PEC Zwolle: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Telstar · PEC Zwolle
Before kick-off
Eredivisie, 21 November 2026: Telstar are at home to PEC Zwolle. Telstar go into the match 16th of 18 in the table, PEC Zwolle are 13th. Telstar are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Telstar: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. PEC Zwolle have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 6.
Telstar have not made their ground a fortress: 6 wins, 7 draws and 10 defeats in 23 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for PEC Zwolle — 5 wins, 16 draws and 19 defeats in 40 away matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.8 per game in home matches of Telstar and 3.5 in away matches of PEC Zwolle.
Head to head, PEC Zwolle have the upper hand: 4 wins in 4 meetings with Telstar in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 31 January 2026, finished PEC Zwolle 4:1 Telstar. On average these meetings produce 3.5 goals.
Form
Telstar: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
PEC Zwolle: last five matches — W-D-L-D-D.
- 22 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Telstar — 16, PEC Zwolle — 13 (of 18).
Home and away record
Telstar at home and PEC Zwolle away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Telstar | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 23 | 40 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-7-10 | 5-16-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Telstar won 0, 0 draws, PEC Zwolle won 4. Per match: 3.5 goals.
- 31.01.2026: PEC Zwolle 4:1 Telstar
- 15.08.2025: Telstar 0:2 PEC Zwolle
- 14.04.2023: PEC Zwolle 2:0 Telstar
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Telstar is the more likely winner in our model: 60%, draw 20%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 78% of Telstar’s home matches and 60% of PEC Zwolle’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours PEC Zwolle: 4 wins in 4 meetings with Telstar.
- Our model expects more corners from Telstar: 5.8 against 4.7 for PEC Zwolle.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Telstar 5.8, PEC Zwolle 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards: Telstar 1.3, PEC Zwolle 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 24% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 58%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: Telstar win 60%, draw 20%, PEC Zwolle win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 62%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Telstar | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 26% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 74% | 73% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 8% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.