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FC Groningen vs Heerenveen: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Groningen · Heerenveen
Before kick-off
Eredivisie, 21 November 2026: FC Groningen are at home to Heerenveen. FC Groningen go into the match 9th of 18 in the table, Heerenveen are 6th.
FC Groningen are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Heerenveen have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Heerenveen against 4 for FC Groningen.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) FC Groningen have 17 wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats in 40 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Heerenveen: 10 wins, 6 draws and 23 defeats in 39 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 47 meetings — wins: FC Groningen 13, Heerenveen 22; draws: 12. The most recent meeting, on 18 January 2026, finished Heerenveen 0:2 FC Groningen. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
FC Groningen: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Heerenveen: last five matches — D-W-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: FC Groningen — 9, Heerenveen — 6 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC Groningen at home and Heerenveen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Groningen | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-11-12 | 10-6-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Head to head
47 meetings in our database: FC Groningen won 13, 12 draws, Heerenveen won 22. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 18.01.2026: Heerenveen 0:2 FC Groningen
- 16.08.2025: FC Groningen 2:1 Heerenveen
- 25.01.2025: FC Groningen 1:0 Heerenveen
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 60% of FC Groningen’s home matches and 69% of Heerenveen’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from FC Groningen: 5.7 against 4.7 for Heerenveen.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: FC Groningen 5.7, Heerenveen 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: FC Groningen 1.3, Heerenveen 1.4; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 15% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 70%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: FC Groningen win 31%, draw 22%, Heerenveen win 48%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 69%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Groningen | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 69% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 8% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.