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Paredes vs FC Famalicao: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Paredes · FC Famalicao
Result
Our model: Paredes win 15%, draw 24%, FC Famalicao win 62%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Paredes: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
FC Famalicao: last five matches — D-D-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Paredes at home and FC Famalicao away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Paredes | FC Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Win rate | 67% | 75% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | 13.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 50% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Paredes vs FC Famalicao?
Our model: Paredes 15%, draw 24%, FC Famalicao 62%.