Xpect
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and statistics
Poland · I liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · Arka Gdynia
Before kick-off
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki host Arka Gdynia in I liga on 21 November 2026. In the standings Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th and Arka Gdynia 12th out of 18 teams.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Arka Gdynia are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
The home record of Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 10 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats in 24 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. On the road Arka Gdynia are a dangerous side — 11 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats in 24 away matches, 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: last five matches — D-W-W-L-L.
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Arka Gdynia: last five matches — W-L-L-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — 7, Arka Gdynia — 12 (of 18).
Home and away record
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home and Arka Gdynia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-9-5 | 11-5-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki home games and 42% of Arka Gdynia away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 42%, draw 25%, Arka Gdynia 34%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.8, Arka Gdynia 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 49%).
Result
Our model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win 42%, draw 25%, Arka Gdynia win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 42% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 33% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.