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Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec: prediction and statistics
Poland · I liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Polonia Warszawa · Stal Mielec
Before kick-off
I liga, 21 November 2026: Polonia Warszawa are at home to Stal Mielec. Polonia Warszawa sit 1st in the 18-team table while Stal Mielec are 11th, so 10 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Polonia Warszawa are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against Stal Mielec recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Polonia Warszawa have 18 wins, 8 draws and 14 defeats in 40 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The away record of Stal Mielec: 7 wins, 2 draws and 14 defeats in 23 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 8 February 2026, finished Polonia Warszawa 5:2 Stal Mielec.
Form
Polonia Warszawa: last five matches — L-D-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Stal Mielec: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Polonia Warszawa — 1, Stal Mielec — 11 (of 18).
Home and away record
Polonia Warszawa at home and Stal Mielec away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Polonia Warszawa | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-8-14 | 7-2-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 2.2 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Polonia Warszawa won 2, 0 draws, Stal Mielec won 0. Per match: 5.5 goals.
- 08.02.2026: Polonia Warszawa 5:2 Stal Mielec
- 02.08.2025: Stal Mielec 1:3 Polonia Warszawa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Polonia Warszawa is the more likely winner in our model: 61%, draw 20%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Polonia Warszawa’s home matches and 61% of Stal Mielec’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Polonia Warszawa 1.7, Stal Mielec 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 49%).
Result
Our model: Polonia Warszawa win 61%, draw 20%, Stal Mielec win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Polonia Warszawa | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 30% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.