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Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań: prediction and statistics
Poland · I liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ruch Chorzów · Warta Poznań
Before kick-off
Ruch Chorzów host Warta Poznań in I liga on 21 November 2026. In the standings Ruch Chorzów are 5th and Warta Poznań 9th out of 18 teams.
Ruch Chorzów have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Warta Poznań are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Ruch Chorzów took 10 from that stretch and Warta Poznań only 4.
The home record of Ruch Chorzów (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 19 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats in 40 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Warta Poznań find it hard on the road: 5 wins, 6 draws and 15 defeats in 26 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 2 in 4 meetings. Last time out (3 May 2025) it ended Warta Poznań 0:2 Ruch Chorzów. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Ruch Chorzów: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Warta Poznań: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Ruch Chorzów — 5, Warta Poznań — 9 (of 18).
Home and away record
Ruch Chorzów at home and Warta Poznań away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ruch Chorzów | Warta Poznań | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 26 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-10-11 | 5-6-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Ruch Chorzów won 2, 2 draws, Warta Poznań won 0. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 03.05.2025: Warta Poznań 0:2 Ruch Chorzów
- 25.10.2024: Ruch Chorzów 2:1 Warta Poznań
- 17.02.2024: Ruch Chorzów 0:0 Warta Poznań
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- 2 of the 4 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 60% of Ruch Chorzów home games and 58% of Warta Poznań away games.
- Our model makes Ruch Chorzów the favourite at 59%; a draw is 23%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Ruch Chorzów 2.1, Warta Poznań 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 49%).
Result
Our model: Ruch Chorzów win 59%, draw 23%, Warta Poznań win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ruch Chorzów | Warta Poznań | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 19% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 46% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.