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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: prediction and statistics

Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Real Madrid · RB Leipzig

Key facts

Corners

55%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Real Madrid 6.1, RB Leipzig 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 50%.

Yellow cards

64%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Real Madrid 2.1, RB Leipzig 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 43%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 57%.

Result

Our model: Real Madrid win 72%, draw 17%, RB Leipzig win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 54%.

European cups

Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format

Real Madrid

All 15: 10W · 0D · 5L · goals 35:21
Home 8: 6W · 0D · 2L · goals 18:8

League · La Liga 2026/27: 4 of 20 · 6W · 0D · 2L · goals 19:8. Spain — 3 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 84.0).

RB Leipzig

All 2: 1W · 0D · 1L · goals 2:4
Away 1: 0W · 0D · 1L · goals 1:4

League · Bundesliga 2026/27: 5 of 18 · 3W · 0D · 2L · goals 15:5. Germany — 4 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 82.0).

UCL: league phase 2026/27: Real Madrid — 16 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; RB Leipzig — 20 of 36 · 3 pts · 2 played.

Head to head in Europe

Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.

Form

Real Madrid: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.

RB Leipzig: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.

Team statistics for three seasons

Real Madrid at home and RB Leipzig away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Real MadridRB Leipzig
Matches155
Win rate73%0%
Goals scored per match2.50.6
Goals conceded per match1.32.2
Over 2.5 goals93%60%
Both teams score87%60%
Total corners per match13.510.8
Over 9.5 corners87%80%
Total yellow cards per match3.44.0
Over 4.5 yellow cards40%40%

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Real Madrid won 2, 1 draws, RB Leipzig won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals, 10.5 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.

How many yellow cards in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.

Who is more likely to win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Our model: Real Madrid 72%, draw 17%, RB Leipzig 12%.

Other matches

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