Xpect
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Real Madrid 5.6, Sevilla 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 50%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Real Madrid 2.0, Sevilla 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Real Madrid win 61%, draw 21%, Sevilla win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Real Madrid: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Sevilla: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Real Madrid — 3, Sevilla — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Real Madrid at home and Sevilla away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 86% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 64% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 44% |
Head to head
61 meetings in our database: Real Madrid won 42, 6 draws, Sevilla won 13. Per match: 3.7 goals, 9.5 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 17.05.2026: Sevilla 0:1 Real Madrid
- 20.12.2025: Real Madrid 2:0 Sevilla
- 18.05.2025: Sevilla 0:2 Real Madrid
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 49%.
Who is more likely to win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our model: Real Madrid 61%, draw 21%, Sevilla 18%.