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Sporting CP vs LASK Linz: prediction and statistics

Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Sporting CP · LASK Linz

Key facts

Corners

52%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Sporting CP 5.8, LASK Linz 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.

Yellow cards

61%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Sporting CP 1.7, LASK Linz 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 43%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.

Result

Our model: Sporting CP win 75%, draw 15%, LASK Linz win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 55%.

European cups

Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format

Sporting CP

All 14: 8W · 2D · 4L · goals 27:16
Home 7: 6W · 0D · 1L · goals 19:5

League · Primeira Liga 2026/27: 3 of 18 · 5W · 3D · 0L · goals 20:9. Portugal — 6 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 66.2).

LASK Linz

All 3: 1W · 0D · 2L · goals 5:5
Away 2: 0W · 0D · 2L · goals 0:4

League · Bundesliga 2026/27: 3 of 12 · 5W · 1D · 2L · goals 19:9. Austria — 17 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 28.3).

UCL: league phase 2026/27: Sporting CP — 2 of 36 · 6 pts · 2 played; LASK Linz — 27 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.

Head to head in Europe

Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.

Form

Sporting CP: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.

LASK Linz: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.

Team statistics for three seasons

Sporting CP at home and LASK Linz away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Sporting CPLASK Linz
Matches122
Win rate67%0%
Goals scored per match2.30.0
Goals conceded per match1.32.0
Over 2.5 goals75%50%
Both teams score58%0%
Total corners per match9.810.5
Over 9.5 corners58%100%
Total yellow cards per match4.92.0
Over 4.5 yellow cards67%0%

Head to head

3 meetings in our database: Sporting CP won 1, 0 draws, LASK Linz won 2. Per match: 3.7 goals, 15.0 corners, 2.7 yellow cards.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

How many corners in Sporting CP vs LASK Linz?

Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.

How many yellow cards in Sporting CP vs LASK Linz?

Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.

Who is more likely to win Sporting CP vs LASK Linz?

Our model: Sporting CP 75%, draw 15%, LASK Linz 10%.

Other matches

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