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Universitario vs FBC Melgar: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Universitario 5.5, FBC Melgar 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Universitario 1.8, FBC Melgar 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 42%.
Form
Universitario: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
FBC Melgar: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Universitario — 2, FBC Melgar — 4 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Universitario at home and FBC Melgar away, 2024–2026.
| Universitario | FBC Melgar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 48 |
| Win rate | 83% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 48% |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Universitario won 10, 4 draws, FBC Melgar won 9. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.3 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: FBC Melgar 2:1 Universitario
- 20.01.2026: Universitario 3:2 FBC Melgar
- 14.09.2025: FBC Melgar 1:2 Universitario
Referee
Roberto Perez Gutierrez: 162 matches in our database, 4.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.5); over 4.5 cards in 44% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Universitario vs FBC Melgar?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.