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Vejle vs HB Koge: prediction and statistics
Denmark · 1. Division · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Vejle host HB Koge in 1. Division on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Vejle are 2nd of 12, HB Koge 11th — a gap of 9 places. Vejle are in the top three. HB Koge are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Vejle have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for HB Koge: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 7 and 6.
Home advantage matters here: Vejle have 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.6 per game. Away from home HB Koge have 9 wins, 13 draws and 17 defeats in 39 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game.
The 24 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Vejle 8, HB Koge 7, draws 9. Last time out (31 July 2026) it ended HB Koge 0:2 Vejle. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.
Form
Vejle: last five matches — W-L-L-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
HB Koge: last five matches — D-D-W-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Vejle — 2, HB Koge — 11 (of 12).
Home and away record
Vejle at home and HB Koge away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vejle | HB Koge | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-2-1 | 9-13-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Vejle won 8, 9 draws, HB Koge won 7. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 31.07.2026: HB Koge 0:2 Vejle
- 24.02.2023: HB Koge 0:0 Vejle
- 03.09.2022: Vejle 1:2 HB Koge
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Vejle home games and 64% of HB Koge away games.
- Our model makes Vejle the favourite at 57%; a draw is 23%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Vejle 1.6, HB Koge 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 29%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Vejle win 57%, draw 23%, HB Koge win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Vejle | HB Koge | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 57% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 21% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.