Xpect
Vitoria Setubal vs Uniao da Serra: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Vitoria Setubal · Uniao da Serra
Result
Our model: Vitoria Setubal win 50%, draw 25%, Uniao da Serra win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Vitoria Setubal: last five matches — .
Uniao da Serra: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Vitoria Setubal at home and Uniao da Serra away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vitoria Setubal | Uniao da Serra | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Win rate | — | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | — | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | — | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 33% |
| Both teams score | — | 33% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Vitoria Setubal vs Uniao da Serra?
Our model: Vitoria Setubal 50%, draw 25%, Uniao da Serra 25%.