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Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and statistics
Poland · Ekstraklasa · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Zaglebie Lubin · Gornik Zabrze
Before kick-off
Zaglebie Lubin host Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa on 21 November 2026. In the standings Zaglebie Lubin are 6th and Gornik Zabrze 2nd out of 18 teams. Gornik Zabrze are part of the leading group.
Zaglebie Lubin arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. No defeats for Gornik Zabrze in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws).
The home record of Zaglebie Lubin (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 18 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats in 41 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Away from home Gornik Zabrze have 15 wins, 13 draws and 13 defeats in 41 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 per game.
The 18 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Zaglebie Lubin 10, Gornik Zabrze 6, draws 2. Last time out (9 May 2026) it ended Gornik Zabrze 0:2 Zaglebie Lubin. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Gornik Zabrze: last five matches — W-D-W-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Zaglebie Lubin — 6, Gornik Zabrze — 2 (of 18).
Home and away record
Zaglebie Lubin at home and Gornik Zabrze away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Zaglebie Lubin | Gornik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-10-13 | 15-13-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Zaglebie Lubin won 10, 2 draws, Gornik Zabrze won 6. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 09.05.2026: Gornik Zabrze 0:2 Zaglebie Lubin
- 07.11.2025: Zaglebie Lubin 2:0 Gornik Zabrze
- 11.04.2025: Zaglebie Lubin 2:1 Gornik Zabrze
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze should win the corner count: 6.7 expected against 3.2 for Zaglebie Lubin.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Zaglebie Lubin home games and 42% of Gornik Zabrze away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Zaglebie Lubin 31%, draw 27%, Gornik Zabrze 42%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Zaglebie Lubin 3.2, Gornik Zabrze 6.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Zaglebie Lubin 2.3, Gornik Zabrze 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 62%.
Result
Our model: Zaglebie Lubin win 31%, draw 27%, Gornik Zabrze win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Zaglebie Lubin | Gornik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 37% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 37% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.