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AFC Fylde vs Carlisle: prediction and statistics
England · National League · 29 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: AFC Fylde 2.0, Carlisle 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: AFC Fylde win 39%, draw 24%, Carlisle win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
AFC Fylde: last five matches — W-D-W-D-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Carlisle: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: AFC Fylde — 4, Carlisle — 16 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
AFC Fylde at home and Carlisle away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AFC Fylde | Carlisle | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 27 |
| Win rate | 33% | 52% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 41% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in AFC Fylde vs Carlisle?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win AFC Fylde vs Carlisle?
Market line without margin: AFC Fylde 39%, draw 24%, Carlisle 37%.