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Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool: prediction and statistics
England · National League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Scunthorpe 2.0, Hartlepool 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Scunthorpe win 45%, draw 26%, Hartlepool win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Scunthorpe: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Hartlepool: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Scunthorpe — 22, Hartlepool — 19 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Scunthorpe at home and Hartlepool away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Scunthorpe | Hartlepool | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 51 |
| Win rate | 48% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 39% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Scunthorpe won 4, 4 draws, Hartlepool won 3. Per match: 1.6 goals, 7.5 corners, 3.3 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: Scunthorpe 0:0 Hartlepool
- 26.12.2025: Hartlepool 1:2 Scunthorpe
- 30.04.2022: Scunthorpe 1:1 Hartlepool
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool?
Market line without margin: Scunthorpe 45%, draw 26%, Hartlepool 30%.