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Albinoleffe vs Novara: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Albinoleffe win 46%, draw 27%, Novara win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Albinoleffe: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
Novara: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Albinoleffe — 8, Novara — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Albinoleffe at home and Novara away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Albinoleffe | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Win rate | 40% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Albinoleffe won 5, 6 draws, Novara won 2. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 11.02.2026: Novara 2:2 Albinoleffe
- 28.09.2025: Albinoleffe 3:2 Novara
- 02.03.2025: Albinoleffe 1:1 Novara
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Albinoleffe vs Novara?
Our model: Albinoleffe 46%, draw 27%, Novara 28%.