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Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ospitaletto · Pergolettese
Result
Our model: Ospitaletto win 50%, draw 28%, Pergolettese win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Ospitaletto: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Pergolettese: last five matches — L-D-W-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Ospitaletto — 3, Pergolettese — 11 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ospitaletto at home and Pergolettese away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ospitaletto | Pergolettese | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 43 |
| Win rate | 42% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Ospitaletto won 0, 0 draws, Pergolettese won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 25.01.2026: Pergolettese 1:0 Ospitaletto
- 12.09.2025: Ospitaletto 1:2 Pergolettese
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
Our model: Ospitaletto 50%, draw 28%, Pergolettese 23%.