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Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Alcione · Desenzano Calvina
Result
Our model: Alcione win 29%, draw 31%, Desenzano Calvina win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Form
Alcione: last five matches — L-W-D-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Desenzano Calvina: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Alcione — 9, Desenzano Calvina — 6 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Alcione at home and Desenzano Calvina away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Alcione | Desenzano Calvina | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 5 |
| Win rate | 38% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Alcione won 2, 1 draws, Desenzano Calvina won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 14.05.2023: Alcione 2:1 Desenzano Calvina
- 06.04.2023: Desenzano Calvina 1:1 Alcione
- 27.11.2022: Alcione 1:0 Desenzano Calvina
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our model: Alcione 29%, draw 31%, Desenzano Calvina 40%.