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Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Athletic Carpi · Lumezzane
Result
Our model: Athletic Carpi win 23%, draw 27%, Lumezzane win 50%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Athletic Carpi: last five matches — D-D-L-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Lumezzane: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
Table: Athletic Carpi — 18, Lumezzane — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Athletic Carpi at home and Lumezzane away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Athletic Carpi | Lumezzane | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 41 |
| Win rate | 0% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane?
Our model: Athletic Carpi 23%, draw 27%, Lumezzane 50%.