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Algeciras vs Hércules: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Algeciras · Hércules
Result
Our model: Algeciras win 60%, draw 24%, Hércules win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Algeciras: last five matches — L-D-L-D-W.
Hércules: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Algeciras — 15, Hércules — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Algeciras at home and Hércules away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Algeciras | Hércules | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 40 |
| Win rate | 44% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Algeciras won 2, 0 draws, Hércules won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 16.05.2026: Algeciras 0:2 Hércules
- 12.09.2025: Hércules 0:1 Algeciras
- 11.05.2025: Hércules 1:2 Algeciras
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Algeciras vs Hércules?
Our model: Algeciras 60%, draw 24%, Hércules 16%.