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Real Jaén vs Rayo Majadahonda: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Real Jaén · Rayo Majadahonda
Result
Our model: Real Jaén win 52%, draw 27%, Rayo Majadahonda win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Real Jaén: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Rayo Majadahonda: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
Table: Real Jaén — 7, Rayo Majadahonda — 19 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Real Jaén at home and Rayo Majadahonda away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Jaén | Rayo Majadahonda | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate | 33% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 100% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Real Jaén vs Rayo Majadahonda?
Our model: Real Jaén 52%, draw 27%, Rayo Majadahonda 21%.