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Águilas vs Ibiza: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Águilas win 35%, draw 28%, Ibiza win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Águilas: last five matches — W-D-W-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Ibiza: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Águilas — 17, Ibiza — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Águilas at home and Ibiza away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Águilas | Ibiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 41 |
| Win rate | 25% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Águilas vs Ibiza?
Our model: Águilas 35%, draw 28%, Ibiza 37%.