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Aston Villa vs Viking FK: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Aston Villa · Viking FK
Key facts
- Aston Villa is the more likely winner in our model: 73%, draw 16%.
- Our model expects more corners from Aston Villa: 7.8 against 2.6 for Viking FK.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Aston Villa 7.8, Viking FK 2.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Aston Villa 1.9, Viking FK 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Aston Villa win 73%, draw 16%, Viking FK win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 54%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Aston Villa
All 16: 14W · 0D · 2L · goals 34:10
Home 7: 7W · 0D · 0L · goals 18:3
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Club Brugge KV (a) 3:2
- 20.05.26 · UEL · SC Freiburg (a) 3:0
- 07.05.26 · UEL · Nottingham Forest (h) 4:0
- 30.04.26 · UEL · Nottingham Forest (a) 0:1
- 16.04.26 · UEL · Bologna (h) 4:0
League · Premier League 2026/27: 16 of 20 · 1W · 2D · 3L · goals 6:11. England — 1 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 104.0).
Viking FK
All 8: 3W · 3D · 2L · goals 23:16
Away 4: 1W · 2D · 1L · goals 9:9
- 13.10.26 · UCL · Bayern München (h) 3:3
- 09.09.26 · UCL · VfB Stuttgart (a) 1:3
- 26.08.26 · UCL · Dinamo Zagreb (h) 3:1
- 18.08.26 · UCL · Dinamo Zagreb (a) 2:2
- 13.08.25 · UECL · Başakşehir (a) 1:1
League · Eliteserien 2026: 2 of 16 · 17W · 2D · 3L · goals 56:20. Norway — 13 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 38.8).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Aston Villa — 11 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Viking FK — 26 of 36 · 1 pts · 2 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Aston Villa: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · at home
Viking FK: last five matches — L-D-D-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Aston Villa at home and Viking FK away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aston Villa | Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Win rate | 83% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | 8.2 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Aston Villa vs Viking FK?
Our model expects 10.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 59%.
How many yellow cards in Aston Villa vs Viking FK?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Aston Villa vs Viking FK?
Our model: Aston Villa 73%, draw 16%, Viking FK 11%.