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Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Atletico Tucuman · Rosario Central
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Atletico Tucuman 5.2, Rosario Central 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Atletico Tucuman 2.2, Rosario Central 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Atletico Tucuman win 28%, draw 29%, Rosario Central win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Atletico Tucuman: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
Rosario Central: last five matches — L-D-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Atletico Tucuman — 25, Rosario Central — 3 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Tucuman at home and Rosario Central away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Tucuman | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 45 |
| Win rate | 45% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 73% |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Atletico Tucuman won 3, 6 draws, Rosario Central won 9. Per match: 2.6 goals, 8.2 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Rosario Central 2:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 09.08.2025: Atletico Tucuman 0:0 Rosario Central
- 08.02.2025: Rosario Central 3:1 Atletico Tucuman
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central?
Our model: Atletico Tucuman 28%, draw 29%, Rosario Central 42%.