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Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Independ. Rivadavia · Tigre
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Independ. Rivadavia 4.8, Tigre 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Independ. Rivadavia 2.4, Tigre 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Independ. Rivadavia win 54%, draw 26%, Tigre win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Independ. Rivadavia: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Tigre: last five matches — D-L-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Independ. Rivadavia — 6, Tigre — 22 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Independ. Rivadavia at home and Tigre away, 2024–2026.
| Independ. Rivadavia | Tigre | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 46 |
| Win rate | 48% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 52% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Independ. Rivadavia won 4, 1 draws, Tigre won 1. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.5 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 12.07.2026: Independ. Rivadavia 1:0 Tigre
- 02.04.2026: Tigre 0:2 Independ. Rivadavia
- 06.09.2025: Tigre 1:3 Independ. Rivadavia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 54%.
Who is more likely to win Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre?
Our model: Independ. Rivadavia 54%, draw 26%, Tigre 21%.