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Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Defensa Y Justicia · Instituto Cordoba
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Defensa Y Justicia 3.8, Instituto Cordoba 5.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Defensa Y Justicia 2.1, Instituto Cordoba 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Defensa Y Justicia win 37%, draw 28%, Instituto Cordoba win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Defensa Y Justicia: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Instituto Cordoba: last five matches — W-D-D-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Defensa Y Justicia — 13, Instituto Cordoba — 9 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Defensa Y Justicia at home and Instituto Cordoba away, 2024–2026.
| Defensa Y Justicia | Instituto Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 45 |
| Win rate | 42% | 22% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 37% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 58% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Defensa Y Justicia won 2, 1 draws, Instituto Cordoba won 6. Per match: 2.5 goals, 9.7 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 07.04.2026: Instituto Cordoba 2:0 Defensa Y Justicia
- 24.08.2024: Instituto Cordoba 4:1 Defensa Y Justicia
- 15.04.2023: Defensa Y Justicia 1:0 Instituto Cordoba
Referee
Andres Merlos: 257 matches in our database, 4.4 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.1); over 4.5 cards in 46% of matches.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba?
Our model: Defensa Y Justicia 37%, draw 28%, Instituto Cordoba 36%.