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Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Velez Sarsfield · Gimnasia M.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Velez Sarsfield 5.6, Gimnasia M. 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Velez Sarsfield 2.1, Gimnasia M. 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Velez Sarsfield win 53%, draw 27%, Gimnasia M. win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 40%.
Form
Velez Sarsfield: last five matches — D-D-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Gimnasia M.: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Velez Sarsfield — 7, Gimnasia M. — 16 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Velez Sarsfield at home and Gimnasia M. away, 2024–2026.
| Velez Sarsfield | Gimnasia M. | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 14 |
| Win rate | 53% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 36% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Velez Sarsfield won 0, 0 draws, Gimnasia M. won 1. Per match: 5.0 goals, 4.0 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: Gimnasia M. 3:2 Velez Sarsfield
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
Our model: Velez Sarsfield 53%, draw 27%, Gimnasia M. 20%.