Xpect
Platense vs Lanus: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Platense 5.8, Lanus 3.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Platense 1.9, Lanus 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: Platense win 32%, draw 31%, Lanus win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Platense: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Lanus: last five matches — L-W-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Platense — 26, Lanus — 11 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Platense at home and Lanus away, 2024–2026.
| Platense | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 44 |
| Win rate | 28% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 61% | 57% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Platense won 1, 5 draws, Lanus won 3. Per match: 2.0 goals, 7.4 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 01.04.2026: Lanus 0:0 Platense
- 20.09.2025: Lanus 2:1 Platense
- 09.03.2025: Platense 0:0 Lanus
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Platense vs Lanus?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Platense vs Lanus?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Platense vs Lanus?
Our model: Platense 32%, draw 31%, Lanus 37%.