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Aucas vs LDU de Quito: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Aucas · LDU de Quito
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 29% – 30% – 42%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 53% of Aucas’s home matches and 47% of LDU de Quito’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Aucas: 5.4 against 4.2 for LDU de Quito.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Aucas 5.4, LDU de Quito 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Aucas 2.1, LDU de Quito 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Aucas win 29%, draw 30%, LDU de Quito win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Aucas: last five matches — W-L-W-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
LDU de Quito: last five matches — D-W-L-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Aucas — 5, LDU de Quito — 3 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Aucas at home and LDU de Quito away, 2024–2026.
| Aucas | LDU de Quito | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 51 |
| Win rate | 49% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 54% |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Aucas won 7, 10 draws, LDU de Quito won 10. Per match: 2.1 goals, 10.4 corners, 6.1 yellow cards.
- 26.08.2026: LDU de Quito 1:0 Aucas
- 17.08.2026: Aucas 0:1 LDU de Quito
- 23.04.2026: LDU de Quito 0:0 Aucas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
Our model: Aucas 29%, draw 30%, LDU de Quito 42%.