Xpect
Leones del Norte vs Emelec: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Leones del Norte 5.4, Emelec 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Leones del Norte 2.2, Emelec 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Leones del Norte win 47%, draw 28%, Emelec win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Leones del Norte: last five matches — D-D-L-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Emelec: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Leones del Norte — 9, Emelec — 11 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Leones del Norte at home and Emelec away, 2024–2026.
| Leones del Norte | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 51 |
| Win rate | 40% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 27% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 47% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Leones del Norte won 1, 1 draws, Emelec won 1. Per match: 1.7 goals, 8.5 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 30.08.2026: Emelec 2:1 Leones del Norte
- 03.05.2026: Leones del Norte 2:0 Emelec
- 08.10.2025: Leones del Norte 0:0 Emelec
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our model: Leones del Norte 47%, draw 28%, Emelec 25%.