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Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Libertad · Guayaquil City FC
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Libertad’s home matches and 40% of Guayaquil City FC’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 4 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Libertad: 5.2 against 3.6 for Guayaquil City FC.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Libertad 5.2, Guayaquil City FC 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Libertad 2.1, Guayaquil City FC 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Libertad win 28%, draw 26%, Guayaquil City FC win 46%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Libertad: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
Guayaquil City FC: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Libertad — 6, Guayaquil City FC — 8 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Libertad at home and Guayaquil City FC away, 2024–2026.
| Libertad | Guayaquil City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 15 |
| Win rate | 49% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 7.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 29% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 47% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Libertad won 1, 2 draws, Guayaquil City FC won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.0 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 15.08.2026: Guayaquil City FC 2:2 Libertad
- 21.04.2026: Libertad 0:1 Guayaquil City FC
- 10.10.2023: Libertad 1:0 Guayaquil City FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our model: Libertad 28%, draw 26%, Guayaquil City FC 46%.