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Macara vs Independiente del Valle: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Macara · Independiente del Valle
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 38% of Macara’s home matches and 61% of Independiente del Valle’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Independiente del Valle: 15 wins in 22 meetings with Macara.
- No clear favourite in our model: 32% – 26% – 42%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Macara 4.4, Independiente del Valle 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Macara 2.2, Independiente del Valle 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Macara win 32%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Macara: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Independiente del Valle: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Macara — 2, Independiente del Valle — 1 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Macara at home and Independiente del Valle away, 2024–2026.
| Macara | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 51 |
| Win rate | 40% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 48% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Macara won 3, 4 draws, Independiente del Valle won 15. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.5 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 05.09.2026: Independiente del Valle 3:1 Macara
- 16.05.2026: Macara 0:3 Independiente del Valle
- 12.07.2025: Macara 1:2 Independiente del Valle
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Our model: Macara 32%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle 42%.