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Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio: prediction and statistics
Peru · Liga 2 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ayacucho FC · Union Comercio
Result
Our model: Ayacucho FC win 25%, draw 27%, Union Comercio win 48%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Ayacucho FC: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Union Comercio: last five matches — D-W-D-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Ayacucho FC — 13, Union Comercio — 1 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ayacucho FC at home and Union Comercio away, 2024–2026.
| Ayacucho FC | Union Comercio | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 22 |
| Win rate | 41% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 32% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Ayacucho FC won 4, 3 draws, Union Comercio won 4. Per match: 2.5 goals, 12.0 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 12.10.2026: Union Comercio 5:0 Ayacucho FC
- 19.10.2019: Ayacucho FC 1:1 Union Comercio
- 04.05.2019: Union Comercio 0:1 Ayacucho FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
Our model: Ayacucho FC 25%, draw 27%, Union Comercio 48%.