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Badajoz vs Tenerife: prediction and statistics
Spain · Copa del Rey · 18 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Badajoz · Tenerife
Before kick-off
Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026: Badajoz are at home to Tenerife.
Recent results of Badajoz are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Tenerife are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Badajoz against 3 for Tenerife.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Badajoz have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 6 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Tenerife travel well: 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 6 away matches, with 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Badajoz: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Tenerife: last five matches — D-L-L-D-D.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Home and away record
Badajoz at home and Tenerife away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Badajoz | Tenerife | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-2-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Tenerife is the more likely winner in our model: 51%, draw 26%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 17% of Badajoz’s home matches and 50% of Tenerife’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards: Badajoz 3.4, Tenerife 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 69% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 69%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Badajoz win 23%, draw 26%, Tenerife win 51%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Badajoz | Tenerife | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 6.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 80% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.